The bot was right. The timing was wrong. v4.x had a fundamental reactive architecture problem — by the time signals scored, the CLOB asks were too expensive. v5.0 solved it with event-driven candle boundaries and predictive early-window scoring.
Political prediction markets don't move on charts — they move on information. Hermes is a Python bot that scores political markets using Grok sentiment, Perplexity probability estimation, and calibration consensus from Metaculus and Manifold. Here's how it works.
Sports prediction is a solved problem for the books. It's wide open on Polymarket. Here's how I built Shiva — a 6-factor probability engine that finds edge in NBA and MLB markets using free public APIs and adaptive weights.
Sports prediction markets are inefficient because the crowd prices on narrative, not data. Shiva is an automated bot that estimates true probabilities from team stats, injuries, and media sentiment — then executes when the edge is real.